2023 Oscars Predictions: The 95th Academy Awards

With most of the major guilds having hosted their awards galas, award season is almost over. All eyes are on the 95th Academy Awards, hosted by Jimmy Kimmel on Sunday, March 12, starting at 5 pm PST. I’m excited to make my list of 2023 Oscars Predictions for the 95th Academy Awards. 

Unlike the 2022 Academy Awards, all 23 categories will be broadcast over the 4-hour ceremony.  In 2022, eight categories, including sound, production design, film editing, live action short, animated short, documentary short, original score, and makeup and hairstyling, were cut from the broadcast. 

It’s been quite the awards season for many films, including surprise nominations like Andrea Riseborough’s Best Actress nomination for To Leslie, and highly publicized snubs – leaving The Woman King, Decision To Leave and RRR out of the Best Picture race.

Independent distributor A24 is undeniably having a great year, banking 18 nominations for films, including The Whale, Marcel The Shell With Shoes On, and most notably, Everything Everywhere All At Once. Currently, A24-nominated films are front-runners for three of four of the major acting awards, with surprises and upsets sure to keep everyone on edge. 

Let’s dive into my 2023 Oscar Predictions!

Best Picture

• All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
  • Malte Grunert
• Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century Studios)
  • James Cameron and Jon Landau
• The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
  • Graham Broadbent, Pete Czernin and Martin McDonagh
• Elvis (Warner Bros.)
  • Catherine Martin, Gail Berman, Patrick McCormick and Schuyler Weiss
• The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
  • Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner
• Tár (Focus Features)
  • Todd Field, Alexandra Milchan and Scott Lambert
• Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount Pictures)
  • Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison and Jerry Bruckheimer
• Triangle of Sadness (Neon)
  • Erik Hemmendorff and Philippe Bober
• Women Talking (MGM/United Artists Releasing)
  • Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Frances McDormand

With a fraction of the budget of most of the films on this list, Everything Everywhere All At Once has taken the world by storm. Opening at SXSW last March, this film stayed at the forefront of conversation all year through social media and word of mouth. Making history as the most nominated A24 film, beating 2017’s Best Picture Moonlight’s 8 nominations, is getting the acclaim it deserves. From the impressive $140 million box office receipts to Michelle Yeoh as the first Asian Best Actress nomination, directing duo The Daniels (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) are having one heck of a year.

Between the Producer’s Guild of America’s Best Picture win to the Director’s Guild of America win for The Daniels, it’s all but a certain path to victory for Everything Everywhere All At Once.  In the last 15 films to win both PGA and DGA, 11 of those films won Best Picture. My 2023 Oscars Prediction for Best Picture is for Everything Everywhere All At Once. 

If all that wasn’t enough to seal the deal, this heartfelt speech by Hollywood veteran 93-year-old actor James Hong after their historic 2023 SAG Award for Cast in a Motion Picture should do the trick. As a Chinese actor whose career has spanned 69 years and over 600 films, he spoke about the injustices he’s faced as an Asian man in Hollywood. 

https://youtu.be/yijJmElBurY

With 14 nominations and seven wins at the 76th British Academy Film Awards, “All Quiet on The Western Front” stands the best chance to upset for this year’s Best Picture. Notable mentions go to TÁR, The Fablemans, and The Banshees of Inisherin, who haven’t secured traction in this year’s competitive race. For insider details about Everything Everywhere All At Once, check out my blog post from last year.

Best Director

• Todd Field
  • Tár (Focus Features)
• Martin McDonagh
  • The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
• Ruben Östlund
  • Triangle of Sadness (Neon)
• Steven Spielberg
  • The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

This year’s nominees are a very male showing of the systems at work in Hollywood, with another year with no women nominees. 

Ruben Östlund’s nomination for Triangle of Sadness shows a glimmer of hope for recognizing the artistry in international films. With his most personal film to date, Stephen Spielberg’s directing in The Fabelmans further cements his place in history as a brilliant storyteller, but doesn’t look to be enough for him to secure a third Oscar for Best Director.

With the DGA handing out their prize to The Daniels for Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Daniels quirky minds serve as inspiration for a new generation of filmmakers who’ve learned many of their skills unconventionally and experimentally. In the 75-year history of the DGA’s, The Daniels are only the third directing duo to win (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for “No Country for Old Men” and Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins won for “West Side Story”). I already can’t wait to watch their well-deserved acceptance speech for an intense multiverse family drama film in a Best Directing masterclass. My 2023 Oscars Prediction for Best Director is Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once.

Best Actor

• Austin Butler 
  • Elvis (Warner Bros.)
• Colin Farrell
  • The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
• Paul Mescal
  • Aftersun (A24)
• Bill Nighy
  • Living (Sony Pictures Classics)

For the first time in history, all five actors are first-time nominees. Brendan Fraser has been enjoying success for his portrayal of a 600-pound queer recluse in Darren Arfonsky’s “The Whale.”

Until Austin Butler’s BAFTA win for Best Actor, Fraser had been considered the favorite for the Academy Award. With Fraser taking Best Actor at the 2023 SAG Awards, I firmly believe Brendan Fraser will walk away with the 2023 Academy Award for Best Actor. 

My 2023 Oscars Prediction for Best Actor is Brendan Fraser, The Whale.

Best Actress

• Cate Blanchett 
  • TÁR (Focus Features)
• Ana De Armas
  • Blonde (Netflix)
• Andrea Riseborough
  • To Leslie (Momentum Pictures)
• Michelle Williams
  • The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)

I’ll never forget the morning the 2023 Oscar nominations were announced, especially because of this category. A last-minute indie campaign was running for To Leslie’s Andrea Riseborough, which forced The Academy to conduct an investigation and make a statement about the rise of social media in Oscar campaigns. Let’s also not forget the outrage over Ana De Armas’s nomination for the controversial Marilyn Monroe biopic Netflix film, Blonde. 

While Michelle Williams shines as a character based on Spielberg’s mother in his semi-autobiographical film, The Fabelmans, this year’s race is focused on Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. Cate Blanchett’s performance as Lydia Tar has been praised throughout the awards season, with over thirty wins across critics and film bodies. As an Oscar darling, Blanchett stands to win her third Oscar.

There is, however, a chance and a large hope for Michelle Yeoh to make history. Yeoh’s impressive career spans decades, notably acting and performing her stunts in films such as Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, Memoirs of a Geisha, and Tomorrow Never Dies. With waves of change happening year after year, The Academy has the chance to follow SAG’s lead, making Michelle Yeoh the first Asian woman to win Best Actress. 

My 2023 Oscars Prediction for Best Actress is Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once.

Best Supporting Actor

• Brendan Gleeson
  • The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
• Brian Tyree Henry
  • Causeway (A24/Apple Original Films)
• Judd Hirsch
  • The Fabelmans (Universal Pictures)
• Barry Keoghan
  • The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)

Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan’s performances in The Banshees of Inisherin were incredible, with the BAFTA’s agreeing that Keoghan’s performance was worthy of the Best Supporting Actor award. Brian Tyree Henry shines, addressing mental health and vulnerability in his performance in Causeway. Judd Hirsch steals the show in The Fabelmans with this intimate performance. While these men were stunning in their roles spanning generations and stories, this year’s Oscar is going to the humble and deserving Ke Huy Quan.

Audiences may recognize Quan in his roles as a child star in the films “The Goonies” and “Indiana Jones and The Temple Of Doom.” Stepping away from acting for over four decades, Ke Huy Quan returns triumphantly to the big screen as Waymond Wang in Everything Everywhere All At Once. Balancing tenderness, vulnerability, and a demanding role, Ke Huy Quan will undoubtedly win the 2023 Academy Award for  Best Supporting Actor. 

My 2023 Oscars Prediction for Best Supporting Actor is Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once.

Best Supporting Actress

• Hong Chau
  • The Whale (A24)
• Kerry Condon
  • The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight Pictures)
• Jamie Lee Curtis
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
• Stephanie Hsu
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)

Personally, I’m most excited about this category. I loved Hong Chau in both The Whale and The Menu, and I hope to watch her star continue to explode in the coming years. Kerry Condon’s performance in The Banshees of Inisherin is a powerhouse, and I’m so glad to see her get this recognition, especially with her BAFTA win.

This is Angela Basset’s year. With her role as Queen Ramonda in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, she’s made history as the first actor from a Marvel movie to receive a nomination. Her career has taken her across film and television, always bringing love, attention, and depth to every performance. Having won dozens of awards this year, Basset looks to secure her first Oscar win. 

Jamie Lee Curtis’ SAG award win for Best Supporting Actress definitely shakes things up, especially as this is Curtis’ first Oscar nomination in her decades-long career. 

I would be remiss if I didn’t give my personal flowers to the best performance I’ve seen this year. Stephanie Hsu’s range of portraying Joy / Jobu Tupaki in Everything Everywhere All At Once is unprecedented. Frankly, I’m blown away she’s been overlooked and in many cases, not even nominated for many awards shows. Without her stability in the middle of the chaos that is Everything Everywhere All At Once, the film wouldn’t shine as brightly as it does. Stephanie Hsu, I’m pulling for you to pull off an upset this year for Best Supporting Actress. 

My 2023 Oscars Prediction for Best Supporting Actress is Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.

And Those Are My 2023 Oscars Predictions!

It’s been a remarkable year for cinema. While we have a long way to go to achieve parity in the industry, every year, I hope we get a little closer to making a difference. As a filmmaker and storyteller, Everything Everywhere All At Once has rejuvenated my creative soul. It’s amazing to see this experimental and explorative indie film with a ton of heart-making waves and history.

Original ideas are not dead. Audiences are craving originality now more than ever. With indie distribution powerhouse A24 on the map, I hope more investors take notice and green-light more original concepts. Do you agree? Let me know in the comments who you think will win, who you thought should have been nominated, and your favorite performances.

Tune in on March 12 at 5pm PST to watch who wins big at the 95th Academy Awards.